Utrecht, 5 August 2021 – Mortgage revenue in the second quarter of 2021 totaled €37 billion. This is a rise of 8.3% in comparison to the second quarter of 2020, but a remarkable decline of 5.8% compared to the first quarter of 2021. The number of new homeowners declined sharply, whereas their numbers rose strongly in the first quarter due to the fall in transfer tax. The number of transferrers has declined as well, which brings the total number of mortgages provided to 109,000 in the second quarter of 2021, compared to 112,000 in the first quarter.
'The decline in mortgage revenue in comparison to the first quarter is remarkable, but not completely unexpected after the exceptional first quarter of 2021,’ according to Joppe Smit of management consulting firm IG&H. ‘The shift in revenue share from transferrers to new homeowners in comparison to the second quarter of 2020 is particularly interesting,’ says Smit. The average mortgage loan size declined to €348,000, a decrease of 3.4% compared to the previous quarter, which also contributed to the declining revenue.
Decline in purchase market after strong first quarter
In the second quarter of 2021, the number of new homeowners has declined strongly in comparison to the first quarter (-24.9%), along with the number of transferrers (-12.9%). For new homeowners, this is a relapse after the extraordinary spike in the first quarter because of the fall in transfer tax. In comparison to the second quarter of 2020, the number of new homeowners has clearly risen (+8.1%). Mortgage revenue for transferrers has declined by 28.1% in comparison to the first quarter of 2021 but has increased by 15.2% in comparison to the second quarter of 2020.
The number of transferrers has decreased for the second quarter in a row to 45,000 mortgages and has even decreased with 7.1% in comparison to the second quarter of 2020. ‘This shows that the housing flow is stagnating, which causes the number of houses provided for sale by people that transfer to a new home to decrease,’ according to Joppe Smit. Mortgage revenue among transferrers has increased by 4.7% in comparison to the second quarter of 2020 but has declined by 12% in comparison to the previous quarter. Mortgage revenue among people refinancing and taking out additional loans has increased both in comparison to the previous quarter (+41.9%) and in comparison to the second quarter of 2020 (+10.7%).
Market share of (large) banks decline
Market share of banks has decreased in the second quarter of 2021 to 53.7%. For the three large banks that have experienced the strongest decline, their market share declined to 46.5%. ING, ABN AMRO and Rabobank all take a place in the 5 strongest declining lenders. Normally, they do particularly well among new homeowners and transferrers, which is why they show a relatively strong decline this quarter because of the decrease among these groups. Non-bank lenders and insurers show the strongest growth in market share. Allianz shows the strongest growth this quarter, followed by Syntrus Achmea.