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Mortgage Update | Insights from Q4 2023 and year overview


The Dutch mortgage market recovers in the second half of 2023: The upward trend from Q2 2023 continues. Overall, 2023 shows a decrease in mortgage revenue of 30.4% compared to 2022.


Utrecht, February 6, 2024

There has been an upward trend since Q2 2023 for the number of mortgages closed and mortgage revenue. For example, the number of mortgages closed increased 12.1% from Q3 2023 and mortgage revenue increased 18.1% from Q3 2023.


However, the previous level of 2022 has not yet been reached. Compared to 2022, mortgage revenue in 2023 fell by 30.4% to €107 billion, while they amounted to €154 billion in 2022. This decline is mainly caused by those refinancing, a lender group in which mortgage revenue dropped by 72.5% compared to 2022. The number of mortgages issued in 2023 is also lower than the previous year. In 2022 there were 462,000 mortgages issued while in 2023 there were 322,000, a decrease of 30.2%.



Mortgage revenue fell 30.4% from €154 billion in 2022 to €107 billion in 2023. The number of mortgages issued decreased by 30.2% from 462,000 in 2022 to 322,000 mortgages in 2023. This decrease is mainly caused by refinancers, where mortgage revenue fell 72.5% compared to 2022. A turnaround is visible from Q2 2023 and an upward trend has begun. Mortgage sales increased by 18.1% in Q4 2023 and the number of mortgages closed by 12.1% compared to Q3 2023.


Sharp decline in mortgage revenue for refinancers

The decline in mortgage revenue compared to 2022 is largely driven by the sharp decline in mortgage sales of 72.5% among refinancers. Revenue in this group declined sharply in 2022 due to rising interest rates. As a result, refinancing a mortgage no longer seemed appealing. "The declining demand, especially among refinancers, is clearly attributable to these increased interest rates," says Simone Mensink of consultancy and technology firm IG&H.


2023 offered first-time buyers a better perspective, existing homeowners now also more active

Mortgage revenues among first-time buyers and existing homeowners are down by 3.9% and 17.3%, respectively, in 2023 compared to 2022. However, in Q4 2023, mortgage sales among first-time buyers increased by 11.6% compared to the same quarter in 2022, where the increase in mortgage revenue for existing homeowners was only 5.4%. Comparing Q4 to Q3 2023, mortgage sales among first-time buyers increased by 10.7% and mortgage revenue among existing homeowners increased by 18.3%. This shows that aside from first-time buyers, existing homeowners are also becoming more active in the housing market.


Weak quarter for Rabobank label, Rabobank Group retains second place thanks to Obvion

The market share of the Rabobank label fell 1.5% in Q4 2023 compared to Q3 2023. Thanks to a 1.5% rise by Obvion, Rabobank Group retained the second spot in the list of largest groups. Continuing the growing trend, BLG Wonen (0.6%) and Attens Wonen (0.5%) increased their shares. Florius turned an increase into a decrease; last quarter Florius accounted for an increase of 0.9% and now showed a 0.7% decline. The major banks maintain the top 3 positions with ING in first place.


Kind regards,


Simone Mensink

Director Banking

T: +31 6 80 16 95 48


Authors & data analysis of the IG&H Mortgage Update:

 

Rick Verweij 

Martijn Linssen




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