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Turndown in mortgage market continues in fourth quarter
Utrecht, February 21, 2023
The turndown in the mortgage market continued in the fourth quarter of 2022. Thus, both the number of mortgages issued and mortgage sales decreased in the second half of 2022 compared to the first half of 2022 by 21.0% and 19.8%, respectively. This brings the number of mortgages issued in the last quarter of 2022 to 94,000.
In the second half of 2022, there was a sharp decline in mortgage sales among those refinancing, where mortgage sales declined by 53.3%. For all of 2022, the mortgage market declined 10.3% from the previous year to 462,000 mortgages. The largest decrease in mortgage sales is seen in the last quarter of 2022 compared to the last quarter of 2021; mortgage sales fell by 31.0% over this period, reaching €30.8 billion.
A sharp decline in mortgage refinancing
The decrease in mortgage sales compared to 2021 is caused by the sharp decline in mortgage sales for refinancing. Sales among this group declined sharply in the second half of 2022 due to rising interest rates. It is no longer appealing to transfer a mortgage because of the increased interest rates. This is a big contrast to the first half of 2022, when interest rates were still relatively low and, on the contrary, the highest number of mortgages were taken out among borrowers. "Interest rates have been rising since the end of 2021, so many homeowners have been refinancing their mortgages from that point on. This explains the high number of refinancers in the first half of 2022," said Chris van Winden, director of banking at IG&H.
First-time buyers have better chances in the housing market in the second half of 2022
The number of mortgages for first-time buyers increased by 9.5% in the second half of 2022 compared to the first half of 2022. The total number of mortgages issued declined by 17.9% over the same period due to a decrease in the number of mortgages among refinancers and first-time buyers of 46.7% and 0.6%, respectively, increasing the market share of first-time buyers. This shows that the chances of first-time buyers in the housing market have improved over the past six months.
The average mortgage loan size (excluding loose bridging mortgage loans) came to €392,000 in the last quarter of 2022. This is a decrease of 1.4% from the third quarter. The average mortgage sum by lender declined in the last quarter for all lender groups. On the contrary, up to the third quarter of 2022, there was an upward trend in the average mortgage loan sum. This represents a change in trend for first-time buyers and existing homeowners.
Rabobank takes over second place from ABN AMRO after a strong quarter
Rabobank takes over second place from ABN AMRO in the top 10 mortgage lenders. ABN AMRO experiences the strongest decline in the last quarter of 2022, the bank's market share decreases by 1.8%. Lot Hypotheken and Florius saw the strongest decrease after ABN AMRO in the last quarter, with respective market share declines of 1.0% and 1.5%t. Lloyds Bank, Rabobank and Aegon make the biggest climb in Q4 of 2022. Insurers' market share increased by 1.1% to 13.3% in the last quarter of 2022.
Would you like to know more? You can download the full mortgage update. We wish you pleasant reading and wholeheartedly invite you to respond!
Kind regards,
Chris van Winden
Director Banking
T: +31 6 29 56 52 76
Authors & data analysis of the IG&H Mortgage Update:
Rick Verweij
Veerle Willemsen