Mortgage Update | Q3-2020 | Despite COVID-19 pandemic this year might become a record year for the Dutch mortgage market

By Banking, Hypotheekupdate, Mortgage Update, News

Utrecht, November 11th 2020 – Mortgage revenue in the third quarter of 2020 has grown by 26% compared to the third quarter in 2019 to 41 billion. The number of mortgages has grown by 22% to 120 thousand. Compared to the second quarter of 2020, numbers also continue to grow: mortgage revenue increases by 8% and the number of mortgages grows by 5%. The numbers rose among all groups, but it is noteworthy that new homeowners and transferors show the strongest growth. 

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 “The COVID-19 pandemic appears to boost the Dutch mortgage market. In the second quarter of 2020, we already saw historical growth among people taking out refinancing and additional loans, and this quarter the numbers are also increasing for new homeowners and transferors” according to Joppe Smit of consulting firm IG&H. “All numbers point in the direction of new record this year with the highest mortgage revenue so far”. 

The average mortgage value grows by 2,8% compared to the previous quarter to €342.000For people taking out refinancing and additional loans, the average mortgage value increases by 3,8%. For new homeowners and transferors, the average mortgage value grows by approximately 2%. 

New homeowners and transferors show strongest growth 
Mortgage revenue of people refinancing and taking out additional loans grows again this quarter to €16 billion. Growth for this group is relatively low compared to the previous quarter with 5,2% growth, while new homeowners (+13,1%, 8 bn.) and transferors (+8,8%, 17 bn.) show stronger growth. “We are seeing a significant increase in the number of home buyers again. Now that people are forced to spend more time at home, this could be increasing the desire to move for some of them. In any case, the figures show no Corona-induced reluctance. The mortgage market benefits from this ”, says Smit 

Market share of insurers under pressure
The market share of insurers decreases by 2,5 percentage points compared to the previous quarter to 11,8%Foreign parties increase strongly (+1,9 percentage points), and the market share of the banks recovers slightly compared to decreases earlier this year (+0,8 percentage points) and reaches a market share of 56,6%. ING passes ABN AMRO in the top 10 and secures the 2nd spot. 

Over 6,200 advisors have passed the course for advisors in sustainable housing
Since the beginning of this year, IG&H reports on the progress of industry collective Duurzaam WonenTheir aim to educate at least 80% of all mortgage advisors in sustainability by the end of 2020 is now in sightTo date, 7,070 advisors have applied, an increase of 25% compared to the previous quarter. This implies that 70% of all mortgage advisors have now applied.  

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Contact
Joppe Smit
Director at IG&H 
E: joppe.smit@igh.com
T: 06 2035 2438 

Author & data-analysis IG&H mortgage update: 
Chris van Winden (chris.vanwinden@igh.com) & Annelies van Putten-Stemfoort (annelies.vanputten@igh.com) 

 

Mortgage Update | Insights from Q2 2020 | Highest number of mortgages since 2008

By Banking, Mortgage Update, News

Mortgage revenue grows to new record of €38 billion, despite COVID-19 pandemic

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Utrecht, August 6 2020 – Mortgage revenue during the second quarter of 2020 grows by 30% compared to the second quarter in 2019. The number of mortgages grows by 26% to 114 thousand. This is the highest number of mortgages since 2008. The numbers rose among all groups, but people taking out refinancing and additional loans showed the strongest growth. Their numbers rose by 64% compared to the second quarter in 2019. For the first time, the number of mortgages for people refinancing and taking out additional loans exceeds the number of mortgages for new homeowners and transferors.

“The COVID-19 pandemic is yet to negatively affected the Dutch mortgage market. We still see an increase in the number of mortgages for new homeowners and existing homeowners who transfer to a new home. The large increase in the number of mortgages for people refinancing and taking out additional loans shows that the pandemic even seems to have a temporary positive effect on the market” according to Joppe Smit of management consulting firm IG&H.

The average mortgage value continues to grow for new homeowners and transferors (+0,9%). For people taking out refinancing and additional loans, the average mortgage value decreases by 2,8% compared to the previous quarter. Collectively, this explains the decrease of the average mortgage value by 1,3% to €333.000.

People refinancing and taking out additional loans cause strongest growth in 5 years
Mortgage revenue of people refinancing and taking out additional loans grows by 64% in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter in 2019. Their mortgage revenue of €15 billion encloses 40% of the total market revenue. The number of mortgages grows as well by 64%. This is the strongest growth in 5 years for both revenue and numbers. “It seems that many people take the time to refinance, possibly in anticipation of an increase in interest, or to take out additional loans for renovation during this pandemic. That clearly has a positive effect on the Dutch mortgage market” according to Smit.

Market share Top 3 banks drops to an historical low
The market share of the top-3 banks has decreased to 45,6% this quarter. This decrease by -2,3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter brings their market share to the lowest level since the start of our measurements in 2006. Banks experience the strongest decrease of their market share among people refinancing and taking out additional loans

(-5,8 percentage points). ING experiences the strongest decrease for two consecutive quarters.

Over 4,950 advisors have passed the course for advisors in sustainable housing
Since last quarter, IG&H reports on the progress of industry collective Duurzaam Wonen. They are getting closer to achieving their aim to educate at least 80% of all mortgage advisors in sustainability by the end of 2020. To date, 5,980 advisors have applied, an increase of 21% compared to last quarter. This implies that 60% of all mortgage advisors have now applied.

We wish you great joy in reading this article and would like to invite you to respond!

Joppe Smit,
Director bij IG&H
E: joppe.smit@igh.com
T: 06 2035 2438

Author & data-analysis IG&H mortgage update
Annelies van Putten-Stemfoort (annelies.vanputten@igh.com)

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Mortgage Update | Q1 – 2020 | Strong first quarter due to an increasing number of people taking out refinancing and additional loans

By Hypotheekupdate, Mortgage Update, News

Utrecht, 18 May 2020 – The number of mortgages during the first quarter of 2020 grows by 22.8% compared to the first quarter of 2019. Also, the average mortgage value has increased, which has led to an increase in mortgage revenue by 28.4%. This shows that the COVID-19 crisis has not negatively influenced the mortgage industry during the first quarter of 2020. 

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‘The strong growth is mainly driven by customers that are willing to refinance and take out additional loans. Additionally, we see that the average mortgage value continues to grow. Those two factors accelerate the total mortgage revenue growth.’ according to Joppe Smit of management consulting firm IG&H. The average mortgage value currently amounts to 337.000 euros, which means that it has increased by 2.8% compared to the 4th quarter of 2019. The average mortgage value continues to increase for all groups, but the strongest growth (+5.4% compared to Q4 2019) can be found among existing homeowners who transfer to a new home. This indicates that the Dutch mortgage market has not yet faced the inevitable downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The amount of people that refinance and take out additional loans continues to grow
The major share of mortgages is still taken out by existing homeowners transferring to new homes, but the people that refinance their mortgage or take out additional loans have almost caught up with the transferors. The group of transferors expands increasingly (+45.9% compared to Q4 2019), while the first group displays a lower level of growth (+10.0% compared to Q1 2019). This results in a growth rate of 22.8% compared to Q1 2019 for the entire market. “The accelerated growth in transfers could be a response to an increasing interest caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This group wants to utilize this window of opportunity while it lasts.” according to Joppe Smit. 

Downward momentum continues for banks
Banks, and specifically the top-3 banks, have not yet been able to reverse the existing downward momentum in Q1 2020. Their market share has decreased for a second quarter in a row. This means that the top-3 banks have a cumulative market share of 47.9%, which is the lowest point since 2016. Investment funds that enable non-bank lending take advantage of the downward momentum of banks by accumulating a market share of 19.9%. Munt continues to have the highest growth and secures the 4th spot. ING and Florius experience the strongest decrease this quarter. The downward spiral that Florius is currently facing, has made them fall outside the top 10. 

Industry collective Duurzaam Wonen
IG&H is one of the supporting organisations that have recently launched the industry collective Duurzaam Wonen. More than 80 organisations have joined forces to foster awareness for sustainable housing among customers. To increase awarenessmortgage advisors will receive formal education on sustainability. The collective aims to educate at least 80% of the mortgage advisors in sustainability by the end of 2020For the first time, IG&H reports about the activities and progress of this collective and will continue doing so every quarter. To date, 4,900 advisors have applied and, of which, 3,100 have successfully completed this programme. This implies that an additional 3,000 advisors must complete this programme to meet the industry collective’s goal for 2020 (10,000 advisors in total). 

We wish you great joy in reading this article and would like to invite you to respond! 

Joppe Smit
Director at IG&H
E: joppe.smit@igh.com
T: 06 2035 2438

Authors & data-analysis IG&H mortgage update
Annelies Stemfoort (annelies.stemfoort@igh.com)Brenno Baas (brenno.baas@igh.com) 

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IG&H Mortgage Update | Insights from Q4 2019 and an annual review of 2019

By Banking, Mortgage Update, News

Utrecht, March 5, 2020 – New figures from Kadaster (The Netherlands’ Cadastre, Land Registry and Mapping Agency) show that growth in the mortgage market continued in the fourth quarter of 2019. This is mainly caused by the mortgage revenue increase among people taking out refinancing and additional loans. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the number of mortgages issued to this group grew by 26.1% compared to the preceding quarter. Over the whole of 2019, the mortgage market rose to a record high of €128 billion.

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“This surprisingly strong growth is caused by a rise in the number of mortgages as well as a mortgage loan increase,” says IG&H Consultancy’s Joppe Smit. In 2019, the average mortgage loan increased by 6.5%, reaching € 326,000 – its highest point since 2006. Compared to 2018, the number of mortgages increased by 13.4% to 392,000 mortgages taken out. This growth is mainly caused by an increase in the number of mortgages among people taking out refinancing and additional loans (+35.9% compared to 2018).

First-time homeowners lag behind
The mortgage revenue among first-time homeowners fell by 1.4% in the fourth quarter. Compared to the third quarter of 2019, the number of mortgages taken out by first-time homeowners fell by 3.2%. The average mortgage loan among first-time homeowners, however, increased by 1.9% to €276,000, while it dropped among existing homeowners and those taking out refinancing and additional loans. “The number of mortgages only fell among first-time homeowners, and the average mortgage loan only increased among the same group,” says Joppe Smit. “This illustrates the difficult position they’re in.”

The majority of those taking out a mortgage is still made up of existing homeowners – with a market share of nearly 46%. However, those taking out refinancing and additional loans come increasingly closer with a market share of nearly 36%. Compared to the third quarter of 2019, the number of mortgages taken out, in particular, rose significantly (+26.1%) among those taking out refinancing and additional loans. Among existing homeowners, growth is less significant (+6.9%) compared to the third quarter of 2019.

Growth of Aegon’s and Munt’s market shares
In the fourth quarter of 2019, banks lost a market share (-4.7 percentage points) among all groups of people taking out mortgages. Investment funds enabling non-bank lending benefited from this decline and grew their market share (+4 percentage points). “What’s notable is that the market share of the top 3 banks dropped to 48.9%, hitting the lowest level since 2016,” says Joppe Smit.

This quarter, there were several noteworthy shifts in the top 10 providers. Aegon and Munt moved up 3 spots, taking the 5th and 6th spot. MUNT Hypotheken increased by 2.2%, marking the highest increase in the market. As a result, it has strengthened its position in the top 10 of mortgage lenders. The biggest losers in the market were Florius (-1.9%) and Volksbank (-1.2%), which dropped to the 7th and 9th spots, respectively.

We hope you enjoy reading the Mortgage Update and welcome your response!

Sincerely,

Joppe Smit
Director at IG&H
E: joppe.smit@igh.com T: 0031 6 2035 2438

IG&H Mortgage Update
Authors & data analysis:
Annelies Stemfoort (annelies.stemfoort@igh.com), Brenno Baas (brenno.baas@igh.com)

Corrected Kadaster figures
Due to shortcomings in data provided previously, Kadaster corrected and then re-provided figures over the whole of 2019. The figures included in this Mortgage Update are based on the new figures. After consultation, we also corrected one mortgage lender’s production figures, as these didn’t include a significant part of the production – even after Kadaster’s correction.

 

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2019 – Q3 | Mortgage market revival

By Banking, Mortgage Update, News

Utrecht, November 7, 2019 – The revival of the mortgage market results in the best third quarter since 2007. Mortgage revenue grows across the market by 15.1% compared to the previous quarter to €28 billion. This marks the market’s recovery from the shrinkage in the first six months of the year.

“The strong third quarter ensures the market comes close to the level of top year 2018 on an annual basis,” says Joppe Smit from consultancy firm IG&H. Revenue growth in the past quarter is caused by a rise in the number of mortgages as well as a mortgage loan increase. Compared to the second quarter, the number of mortgages increased by 12.8% to 85,000. The average mortgage loan rose to a new record high of €324,000.

Download the IG&H Mortgage Update (in dutch)

Growth among first-time homeowners
Remarkably, the number of mortgages among first-time homeowners also increased (+1.8%), while revenue even rose by 17.2% compared to the previous quarter. This is caused by a strong mortgage loan increase for first-time homeowners. “A possible explanation is that first-time homeowners are older, which means they can afford a higher mortgage loan,” says Smit.

Existing homeowners remain the largest group of those who take out a mortgage with a 46% share. Furthermore, those taking out refinancing and additional loans once again contribute significantly to the growth of the mortgage market (+ 16.5% compared to Q2). Therefore, this group continues to grow, which means it is increasingly important for mortgage lenders to focus on it.

Growth in market share of ABN AMRO and Florius
The market share of banks as a whole, as well as that of the Top 3 Bank Holding, grows at the expense of investment funds enabling non-bank lending. With a 65.9% market share, banks reach the highest market share since 2013, despite a shrinkage of ING and Rabobank. Determining factors for this growth are the increase in banks’ market share among those taking out refinancing and additional loans as well as the substantial growth of ABN AMRO and Florius in the past quarter. A possible explanation is that ABN AMRO has an above-average share of production in the growing group of those taking out refinancing and additional loans.

You can read more about these developments in the appendix, where you can also find the Mortgage Update. We hope you enjoy reading it and welcome your response!

Sincerely,

Joppe Smit
Director at IG&H
E: joppe.smit@igh.com T: 0031 6 2035 2438

IG&H Mortgage Update – authors & data analysis performers:
Niels Roelofs (niels.roelofs@igh.com); Annelies Stemfoort (annelies.stemfoort@igh.com)

IG&H Dutch Mortgage Update: Mortgage market growth caused entirely by refinancers

By Banking, Mortgage Update, News

Dutch mortgage revenues grew in 2018 from 101 billion euros to 106 billion euros, according to consultancy bureau IG&H’s Dutch Mortgage Update. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2017, the number of mortgages shrinked considerably (8.7 percent). That was the largest decrease since the fourth quarter of 2013. As a result, the full growth in the mortgage market has come entirely from people who are not moving to new homes.

The number of mortgages also fell throughout 2018; by 2,1 percent to a total of 346.000. The average mortage sum few by  grew by 7.2% to 306,000 euros; the highest ever. Whilst the number of starters and existing homeowners in the market fell, the number of refinancers grew from 78,000 to 96,000 in 2018. This makes it the highest number ever. “These signs point to mortgage lenders not succeeding in retaining their existing customers”, says Joppe Smit, senior manager at IG&H. “These signs point to mortgage lenders not succeeding in retaining their existing customers.”

Lowest mortgage revenue growth fourth quarter 2018

The total mortgage revenue during the fourth quarter of 2018 was 28 billion euros; a growth of 2.2% over the third quarter. This is the lowest growth rate during this period since 2011.

Smit: “In previous years, there was additional market growth during the final quarter. This year we will not see as much of this. The lower number of granted mortgages and the smaller growth of the mortgage sums play a role in this. Moreover, the maximum lending capacity in past years was lowered at the end of the year, which always ensured extra volume during the final quarter. The lowering of the capacity did not happen this year.”

The shares of major banks during the final quarter sank to 50%, the lowest point in 3 years. Refinancers were responsible for 8.4 billion euros of the total mortgage revenue during the final quarter. The shares of starters (€5.9 billion) and existing homeowners (€13.8 billion) fell by 12 and 15 percent respectively compared to the fourth quarter of 2017. Foreign parties rose slightly to 4,7 percent. Both the largest grower and shrinker is an insurer this quarter. The market share of Nationale Nederlanden increases by 2.05 percent, while Aegon surrenders 3.31 percent.

Written by: Joppe Smit (Senior Manager), Lisa Klein Goldewijk (Banking Consultant) and Niels Roelofs (Banking Consultant).